Spoiler: In a previous post I argued that the lower growth of Swedish GDP per capita is a consequence of our own choice. As our incomes grew over time, we began to consume more services instead of goods. The shift in demand led to a reallocation of labour and capital from the more productive goods-producing industries to services. Thus, Services industries share of GDP has increased over time at the expense of Manufacturing industries. This led to decreasing growth rates. Furthermore, the reallocation of capital from Manufacturing to Services reinforced this decrease of growth rates. This development is a consequence of increasing prosperity.
As incomes have grown, we have chosen to work less. We have also chosen to have fewer children and smaller families. That has over time led to fewer people in the working ages supporting an increasing share of older people. It has also led to relatively fewer young people filling the ranks of the working population.
To prevent GDP per capita growth from stagnating, we need more people that work longer. But reversing declining fertility rates is not easy and increasing immigration can only help temporarily. To prevent GDP per capita growth, ee need to increase productivity growth.
Spoiler: Statistics Sweden reported in a news brief that net exports explained a reduction in GDP compared to a previous period. This is wrong. Later in the same brief they defined GDP as the sum of goods and services domestically produced during a period of time. This is correct.
This misunderstanding is often repeated in the media. It is probably due to a sloppy reading of the National Accounts definition of GDP. This states that GDP = Private Consumption + Government expenditures + Investments + Exports – Imports. But imports are deducted from GDP because Consumption, Investments, and Exports include imported goods and services. Imports and the imported parts of the other components cancel out.
Spoiler: Putin’s war against Ukraine has led to decreased supplies of several goods which Ukraine and Russia exports. We have already seen price hikes of oil and gas followed by decreased supply and higher prices of wheat, sunflower oil, fertilizers, steel to mention some of the most important goods. The world will be poorer, and the poorest people will be hit hardest by Putin.
The effects are felt directly and indirectly. The direct effects concern those firms and households who use gas and oil for as energy or wheat when baking bread. They are also felt indirectly as goods that are produced with gas, oil, wheat, sunflower, and steel become more expensive. The effects are stronger in countries where imports of the goods are relatively large, account for a large part of final domestic demand and the more elastic demand for those goods are.
The effects are stronger in continents and countries with a relatively large share of poor households. More families will be poor. But the effects will reach further. Increased poverty is associated with less nutrition, shorter life expectance and higher natal mortality numbers. Putin kills people today and in the future. In addition to that, his war will lead to fewer births.
And don’t forget! There are no sanctions on russian exports of grain, other agricultural products or fertilizers. putin has chosen, not only to block, destroy and steal Ukrainan exports of grain but also to reduce his own exports.
Spoiler: Since the psychopath in the Kremlin decided to attack Ukraine on a full scale, the corruption project, aka, Nordstream2 will not be certified by Germany. If I’m correct, Germany has also decided to stop buying Russian gas. The sanctions against Russian will significantly decrease trade with Russia. The Kremlin will probably also implement counter sanctions. To have an idea about the effects of these sanctions, this post will investigate how much Russian exports constitute of total domestic final demand in other countries. The next post will look at it the other way around to give a picture of how Putin has punished his own people.
The Kremlin war against Ukraine has caused many countries and the EU to seriously begin to think of how to reduce their dependence of Russian gas. The dependency is often measured in terms of how much imports of Russian gas or oil constitutes of total energy imports or consumption. That measure is not reflecting the true dependency of Russian gas and other products from Russia. It doesn’t take other suppliers of gas or energy into account. And it doesn’t show how much of the gas that is needed to produce different types of goods and services. A more accurate way to measure the dependence is to look at how much of the total value of final demand in different countries that are generated in Russian gas production. This approach takes into account the total supply of energy and the extent to which energy is used in the production of goods and services that are absorbed domestically in different countries.
This is bad news for Putin who overestimated our dependence on him.