Spoiler: The export sanctions are working even though the Kremlin says the opposite. The fact that increasing oil prices have increased russia’s current account is not a sign of success. russia’s imports have decreased drastically due to export sanctions on products that russia needs to kill civilian Ukrainians. The plunging imports are also due to non-sanctioning countries’ hesitation to export to russia because of fear of being on the wrong side of history.
But more export sanctions are necessary. Most export sanctions refer to high-technology products that can be used to kill Ukrainians. That is not enough. Not only chips and electronic components are used in the weapons and weapons systems that putin uses to kill Ukrainians. Also plastics, rubber, metals, textiles and other types of materials are needed.
Including also such products in the export sanctions will make it even more difficult for putin to fight his genocidal war. And secondary sanctions should be imposed to prevent other countries to use sanctioned countries’ products in exports
Imposing secondary sanctions are important because weapons are made by different industries located all over the world. The production in global value chains makes putin’s industries more sensitive for sanctions. By excluding products from global value chains reaching russia, russian industries’ abilities to produce more weapons will be severely limited.
Spoiler: Today, 3rd of May, is World Press Freedom Day 2022. Press freedom is under duress in many countries and journalists are being harassed, jailed and killed by authoritarian regimes.It’s not getting better. It’s getting worse.
And Russia is among the worst places to be a journalist. From the web site of Reporters Without Borders:
“The situation is classified as “very bad” in a record number of 28 countries in this year’s Index, while 12 countries, including Belarus (153rd) and Russia (155th), are on the Index’s red list (indicating “very bad” press freedom situations) on the map. The world’s 10 worst countries for press freedom include Myanmar (176th), where the February 2021 coup d’état set press freedom back by 10 years, as well as China, Turkmenistan (177th), Iran (178th), Eritrea (179th) and North Korea (180th).”
Following Putin’s war against Ukraine, he also extends his war against the free press in Ukraine. His orcs are abducting, arresting, murdering and torturing journalists inside Ukraine. The situation for the media in Russia is approaching the situation in North Korea.
Spoiler: More and more countries sanction exports to Russia which creates problems for the Russian military industry complex. Russia must therefore to a higher extent than before rely on countries that is not on the Kremlin’s list of “unfriendly countries”. China is not on that list. Putin wants to replace imports from sanctioning countries by imports from China.
However, parts of the Chinese value-added shares of Russian final demand for Computers & Electronics and Machinery origin in countries that sanction Russia. Imposing secondary sanctions that prevent China from using parts and components from sanctioning countries will make it more difficult for Putin to feed his death machine.
This will not put a halt to Chinese exports to Russia. China can keep exporting products without any parts and components from sanctioning countries or produce them themselves. However, that is not easy for China in the short run. Chinese exports without parts and components from sanctioning countries appear to be less advanced and poor substitutes for the products from sanctioning countries.
Spoiler: Putin’s war against Ukraine has led to decreased supplies of several goods which Ukraine and Russia exports. We have already seen price hikes of oil and gas followed by decreased supply and higher prices of wheat, sunflower oil, fertilizers, steel to mention some of the most important goods. The world will be poorer, and the poorest people will be hit hardest by Putin.
The effects are felt directly and indirectly. The direct effects concern those firms and households who use gas and oil for as energy or wheat when baking bread. They are also felt indirectly as goods that are produced with gas, oil, wheat, sunflower, and steel become more expensive. The effects are stronger in countries where imports of the goods are relatively large, account for a large part of final domestic demand and the more elastic demand for those goods are.
The effects are stronger in continents and countries with a relatively large share of poor households. More families will be poor. But the effects will reach further. Increased poverty is associated with less nutrition, shorter life expectance and higher natal mortality numbers. Putin kills people today and in the future. In addition to that, his war will lead to fewer births.
And don’t forget! There are no sanctions on russian exports of grain, other agricultural products or fertilizers. putin has chosen, not only to block, destroy and steal Ukrainan exports of grain but also to reduce his own exports.