I korthet: Detta inlägg är en insändare i Ystads Allehanda som replik på en samling kremliner som inte vill att vi ska vara med i NATO. Bland undertecknarna återfinns bl.a. de som kallar sig för “Fredsrörelsen på Orust”. De återger ofta Kremls versioner av verkligheten och har bl.a. påstått att massakern i Srebrenica är en myt. Min replik skickades in innan de ryska massakrerna på civila ukrainiare i bl.a. Butja var kända.
In English: This post is a letter to a newpaper. It’s a reply to a bunch of pro-Russian people who have been defending Russia’s war against Ukraine since 2014. A few of them have also claimed that the massacre in Srebrenica is a myth. I sent my letter to the newspaper before the Russian massacres on civilian Ukrainians in Bucha and other cities were known.
I korthet: Detta inlägg är en insändare i Sydöstran som replik på en snubbe som inte vill att vi ska vara med i NATO.
In English: This post is a letter to a newspaper. It’s a reply to someone who doesn’t want us to be a NATO member. I argue that Ukraine would not have been attacked by the imperialists in Kremlin if Ukraine had been member of NATO in 2014 when the war began. The Baltic countries have not been attacked despite Putin’s mad imperialistic dreams. Why? Because they’re members of NATO.
However, Putin is mad. It can’t be ruled out that he attacks the Baltics. Should that happen, we need to be in NATO too.
Spoiler: Putin’s war against Ukraine has led to decreased supplies of several goods which Ukraine and Russia exports. We have already seen price hikes of oil and gas followed by decreased supply and higher prices of wheat, sunflower oil, fertilizers, steel to mention some of the most important goods. The world will be poorer, and the poorest people will be hit hardest by Putin.
The effects are felt directly and indirectly. The direct effects concern those firms and households who use gas and oil for as energy or wheat when baking bread. They are also felt indirectly as goods that are produced with gas, oil, wheat, sunflower, and steel become more expensive. The effects are stronger in countries where imports of the goods are relatively large, account for a large part of final domestic demand and the more elastic demand for those goods are.
The effects are stronger in continents and countries with a relatively large share of poor households. More families will be poor. But the effects will reach further. Increased poverty is associated with less nutrition, shorter life expectance and higher natal mortality numbers. Putin kills people today and in the future. In addition to that, his war will lead to fewer births.
Spoiler: Putin’s annihilation of Ukraine is not going according to his plan. He did not capture Kyiv within two days and did not manage to kill Zelenskyy. Anyone who daily keeps tracks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has seen how hard the brave Ukrainian people resist and causing many casualties in the Russian army, not to mention different kinds of weapons and equipment.
Many military experts have, put forward several factors explaining the weaknesses in the Kremlin war. Just to mention a few, these include bad or even false intelligence of the Ukrainian forces, the Ukrainians resistance, the terrain and more. Add to this the very poor planning with many unprepared Russian conscripts who believed that they were on an exercise extremely poor logistics causing vehicles to run out of fuel and soldiers out of food, faltering communications, and coordination between and of the military units. Reports about old Soviet-type Russian artillery, hitting civilians instead of military targets, and shortages of missiles and rockets, bare witness that the Russian military is less mighty than feared.
These are the consequences of the weak state of Russia, the malfunctioning of the Russian economy with its low-efficient military industry. These are characteristics you find in a society with pervasive corruption. Corruption which is informally sanctioned by Putin who is has shaped the Kleptocracy aka Russia.